Engin 103

Project 1

Good Design: Data Modeling and System Predictability

Predictability and reliability are certainly two necessary features of a well-designed system. Once you know how to do data modeling or curve-fitting and prediction on any set of data, you can apply it to check the predictability of a system you have designed and built. Any system can be modeled as a black box that produces a response Y to any applied input X. If you do data modeling on a sufficient number of data (X,Y)’s to obtain an equation or a model Y=f(X), the system behavior is predictable if it follows that equation or model.

You are asked to design and build a system that can perform a task, that is, for a given input X the systems produces an output Y. Both X and Y should be easily measurable quantities (for example a length, an angle, a time, etc). The simplest design that can perform the task is usually the best one. Common machines require humans as operators, and humans as complex systems are influenced by many factors resulting in sometimes unpredictable behaviors. Minimizing human intervention, ideally to an intelligent ‘digital” response of yes/no, helps increase predictability. For example, I used to drive a long distance on a regular basis, by using highways, very-low-traffic schedules, and cruise control, my total travel time from point A to point B could be predicted within 1% of error.

In this project, you are required to work in teams to design and build a system, then demonstrate its predictability, that is, how closely it follows an equation or model. Once you have designed and built a system that takes inputs X’s and gives outputs Y’s, you will apply data modeling or curve-fitting on a sufficient number of measured (X,Y)’s to find the best equation Y’=f(X), where f could be a polynomial, exponential, or any other elementary function in X. Once the best equation is obtained, you can use it to predict Y’ for any new value of X. If you now run the system for this same X, the output Y you measure should be very close to the predicted Y’ if your system is predictable. If you take into consideration engineering principles and how to eliminate unpredictable behaviors as discussed above, your system should be very predictable, that is, the predicted value Y’ should be very close to the actual value Y. In the first of the two presentation days you will present the system you designed and built. You will explain what are the input and output variables X and Y for your system, and what particular features in the design were used to make the system more predictable. In the second day, you will show the class the predictability of your system. The predictability will be checked as follows: you will be required to show a sufficient number of data (X,Y)’s you measured using your system, and the best model or equation Y’=f(X) you found with Excel in relating these data. Next you will be required to use this model to make a prediction Y’ for some new value X, given by the audience, with your model. Next you will run your system for that input X, obtaining the actual output Y. Your system will be considered predictable if Y’ and Y differ by less than 10%. Performance grade will be based on how close the predicted and actual values are from each other. Grades from both presentation days will be averaged.

The system you build should be able to produce at least 10 distinguishable X and Y values. Total materials cost should be less than $20, copies of receipts to be submitted with project reports.

Each team will do a 5 minute presentation on their device in each of the two presentation days. In the first day, the teams will give an introduction (what system did they build, what are the inputs and outputs X and Y, what design elements helped them predictability, etc.) followed by the demonstrations, in the second day the team will present the model/equation for the same system and check its predictability as described above. The webpage on the project, along with the project report will be due the class after the second day of the presentations (please check the e-syllabus for exact dates). The team leader will meet with the instructor to discuss team progress on the project on a weekly basis. The project report is expected to be a good written document (see Good Writing Practices), and graded under three categories: correct grammar and neat presentation; logical arguments and structure; accurate report of the team project, completeness, and no plagiarism. Project report will be submitted in hardcopies with member signatures and also in electronic form (see Computer Files: Names and Electronic Submissions). The team leader will be the first author of the team report. A complete report should include the following sections:

-Introduction: brief description of project objectives in your own words, background information needed for the design with emphasis on predictability of your mechanism, work distribution among the team members, and timelines for the different parts of the project: research, design, building, analysis/calibration.

-Design and building: this section should include sketches and diagrams: how the different design elements and hardware components were selected enhance the predictability of the mechanism, the list of components with specification and prices.

-Analysis/Calibration: should include data obtained from your device: tables of X and Y, insert of Excel worksheet with discussions of different types of function relating those two variables and pinpointing which function is the best (with the smallest “standard deviation”, see CW 3, 4, 5). It should also include results from testing the prediction made by this model and an assessment of the predictably of your device. It should also include a brief manual of operation, troubleshooting list, and appropriate recognition of other author’s materials if used in your project.

-Conclusion: overview of the team achievement in this Project and lessons learned for the future. It should also include a self critique of the team leader in guiding the team through this Project along with the following participation table shown below:

Team leaders: please copy the table below, fill it out and submit with the team report for Project 1

Engin 103 Project # 1 Report for team # ____ Submitted by ____________________ (team leader) Today’s date is ______________
Team leader: Please comment on these teamwork elements: communication, organization, and participation while you and your team were completing Project 1. In one paragraph, make a self- evaluation for your team as compared to other teams in the class, and to the team performance in the previous Project. Describe any recommendation you would like to make for your team and the leader for Project 2.
Members	Signatures
Leader:
Member:
Member:
Member:

Team leaders will upload the Word file pr1_XX.doc to the team folder and submit a signed hard copy on or before the report due date. There will be no individual report required for this Project. Grades will be computed as follows:

Items			Points
Project completed and presented			70
Project performance (perform tasks specified)			50
Good design			30
Project presentation and webpage			50
Written reports	Report submitted		70
	Project report: will not accepted without all member’s signatures on percentage of participation	Grammar and presentation	10
		Logical arguments; structure	10
		Accurate and complete	10
Total project grade			300